🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Participant Profited $436,000 on Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was publicly declared, sparking debate about potential gains made from confidential information of American actions. Sudden Shift in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month increased in the hours before Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. One account, which joined the platform recently and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, earned over $nearly half a million from a initial bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement Platform data shows that participants put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. However the odds had climbed to 11% by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of Saturday, pointing to a rapid movement in positions right before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a trade based on inside information," commented an industry expert. A small number of other platform users also profited large payouts from predicting the capture. Political Attention Intensifies Politicians are starting to take note. A bill presented on the start of the week would prevent government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. Market Background Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with traders able to wager on everything from elections to political events. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. But it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate. Insider trading is illegal in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market arena. A company executive for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."