Citizens in the Netherlands are set to possibly exchange the most rightwing administration in modern history with a more centrist and commonsense alliance during early general elections scheduled for 29 October.
What's Happening and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were called after the collapse of the previous administration in the summer, when far-right politician Geert Wilders withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after extended negotiations established a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and center-right VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners deemed him too controversial for the premier position, which was given to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has lived under police protection for twenty years, began criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on 3 June after his allies declined to adopt a radical comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included deploying the army to patrol borders, turning back all refugee applicants, shutting down refugee hostels and sending home all Syria nationals.
Although support for the PVV has declined, surveys suggest the far-right, Islam-critical party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. However, major Netherlands political formations have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are forecast to enter parliament, but no single party is projected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, generally an significant force on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could take several months.
How the System Works and Political Landscape
There are 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a administration requires 76 seats to achieve majority status. No individual group ever manages this, and the Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected quadrennially – earlier if governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any party that wins less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to many European nations, Dutch politics have been marked in modern times by a sharp decline in support for the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose electoral support has shrunk from over four-fifths in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
Domestically, this trend has been accompanied by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to lose up to eight of the thirty-seven mandates it won in 2023. It proposes, among other policies, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the army to fight "urban violence", and an termination to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two political groups, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the late 1970s to the early 90s, and once more in the start of the millennium, but slumped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
However, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who joined political life just recently, the party has bounced back with a campaign highlighting the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "normal, civilised politics". It is projected for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the established social democratic party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to polling averages.
Headed by the experienced ex-EU official its leader, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The center-left D66 is on course to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking youthful head, with a campaign centred on housing (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the political group of the ex-premier (now NATO leader), is predicted to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its leader, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, blamed for its decrease. It is promising corporate tax reductions and reduced social benefits.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from a different rightwing formation – the previously successful, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an exodus of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the ill-fated previous government, the BBB and NSC, are expected to lose out, with the NSC not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns currently have been immigration, with multiple – occasionally aggressive – protests against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is short of 400,000 homes).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Given the highly fragmented state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are actually possible is equally significant as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).
After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, typically the head of the biggest prospective member, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Various combinations look possible, most involving a combination of parties from moderate left and moderate right. The most probable, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and several minor groups potentially including JA21.
